Austin Real Estate Market Update – June 18, 2025
The Austin Housing Market Is Now in Full Correction Mode—What Today’s Numbers Reveal
The June 18, 2025 edition of the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing from Team Price Real Estate provides the clearest picture yet of a housing market that is deep into its correction cycle. With buyer activity weakening further and inventory levels hitting near-record highs, the supply-demand imbalance is growing more acute. Across nearly every metric—price trends, inventory, absorption, and market health indicators—the data confirms that Austin has shifted firmly into a buyer's market with no immediate signs of stabilization. Let’s examine the data in detail from the perspective of a real estate analyst.
Active Inventory Reaches Historic Levels While Demand Falters
Austin’s active residential listings now total 17,598, just 152 listings shy of the all-time high of 17,750 reached on June 16, 2025. To put this in perspective, the previous peak in 2024 occurred on July 15 with 15,503 listings—meaning inventory levels have increased over 13.5% in just under a year. This is not merely seasonal fluctuation; it reflects a broader weakening in demand and a growing resistance to current list prices.
More telling is that 55.0% of all active listings have undergone at least one price reduction, a figure that continues to trend upward. Among the city of Austin’s 5,639 active listings, 56.4% have dropped in price. Even in surrounding cities like Liberty Hill (59.8%), Georgetown (58.6%), and Round Rock (60.1%), price drops dominate, reinforcing the urgency among sellers to remain competitive in a market where buyers are now in control.
Buyer Activity Index Signals Decline in Demand
The Activity Index, a proprietary measure from Team Price Real Estate that reflects buyer engagement, has dropped to 21.0%—down sharply from 24.5% at this time in 2024. That’s a 14.4% year-over-year decline in pending contracts as a share of total market activity. This softening demand is corroborated by pending sales data: only 4,675 properties are currently under contract compared to 4,856 last year—a 3.7% drop.
Looking cumulatively from January through June, pending listings are 12.8% below 2024’s levels, and 3.2% below the 25-year average, totaling just 21,119. When we compare this against the 27,688 new listings during the same time period, we see a substantial gap of 6,569 listings—the largest supply-demand imbalance since 2004.
New Listing to Pending Ratio Reaches Multi-Decade Lows
The new listing to pending ratio for June sits at 0.59. For context, the 25-year average for this ratio is 0.81, and during hot seller markets like 2021 and early 2022, it frequently exceeded 1.0. The year-to-date ratio is similarly low at 0.66, confirming that listings are accumulating faster than they’re going under contract.
This imbalance is reflected across virtually every price segment and city in the metro area. In Liberty Hill, only 7.6% of listings have raised prices, while 59.8% have dropped them. Georgetown shows 58.6% with price cuts, Round Rock 60.1%, and Jarrell 55.2%. Even once-hot markets like Cedar Park and Pflugerville are showing over 56% of listings reducing price.
Months of Inventory Rises Sharply—Confirming Buyer’s Market
One of the clearest indicators of market balance is Months of Inventory (MOI). In June 2025, MOI stands at 6.24, up from 5.22 in June 2024—a 19.5% increase year-over-year. This figure is crucial because Team Price classifies anything above 7 months as a full buyer’s market. We’re nearing that threshold, and many submarkets have already crossed it.
Marble Falls now reports 11.00 months of inventory, up 120.7% year-to-date. Liberty Hill stands at 5.72 months, and Austin proper has climbed from 5.00 to 5.99—up 37.5% in just six months. A dozen cities now sit above 6.0 months, pushing buyers into a highly advantageous position and forcing sellers to compete more aggressively.
Median and Average Prices Continue Their Correction
The average sold price in Austin is now $598,590, down 12.22% from the May 2022 peak of $681,939—a decline of over $83,000. The median sold price is down even more sharply, currently at $464,240, which represents a 15.59% drop from the May 2022 high of $550,000. These figures confirm that the correction, which began in late 2022, is ongoing and deepening. In fact, when comparing the current median price to that of 36 months ago, the decline is -13.23%, illustrating that the market has not only given up pandemic gains but is now below its June 2022 and 2021 levels on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Market Recovery Timeline and Historical Context
Team Price’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate is 5.112%. Assuming the market has found its bottom at today’s median price of $464,240, it would take approximately 43 months—or until December 2028—to regain the previous peak of $551,159. This projection offers a sobering reminder that real estate cycles are long, and buyers should be strategic with their timing and terms.
Sales Volume Lags Population and Agent Growth
There were 2,723 homes sold in June 2025, and year-to-date cumulative sales total 14,855—down 7.0% compared to 2024. While this figure is 7.5% above the long-term average, it's significantly below what’s needed to keep pace with regional growth. When normalized for population, sales are down 20.5% below average. Even more striking, sold properties per 1,000 Realtors have dropped 24.7% below historical norms. This indicates both oversupply of agents and reduced opportunities per agent—further compounding competition and stress within the industry.
Affordability Compression Across Market Segments
Price segmentation trends show uniform price compression. For homes in the bottom 25th percentile, median price is down 3.2% year-over-year and price per square foot is down 4.3%. At the top end, the highest 25th percentile homes are down 1.9% in price and 3.6% in price per square foot. This signals a broad-based correction rather than one isolated to high-end or entry-level homes.
Market Health and Inventory Stress Metrics Confirm Buyer Advantage
The Market Health Index (MHI) now reads 20.0%, and the Inventory Stress Index (ISI) sits at 7.0%. Both metrics strongly favor buyers. MHI values under 30% indicate buyer-dominant conditions, while an ISI under 10% means inventory is growing faster than it is being absorbed. These conditions rarely coincide in strong seller markets and underscore how much negotiating power buyers have regained.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 18, 2025
Austin Market Questions
What’s happening with inventory levels in Austin?
Inventory in Austin continues to climb, with active residential listings reaching 17,598 as of June 18, 2025—just below the all-time high of 17,750 set two days earlier. This marks a 13.5% increase from the July 2024 peak of 15,503. The year-to-date new listings total 27,688, which is 23.3% above the 25-year average. However, demand is not keeping pace. Pending sales are down 12.8% year-over-year, totaling just 21,119. This mismatch between supply and demand has created a surplus of 6,569 listings—the largest gap since 2004. The accumulation of unsold inventory is causing sellers to lower prices, with 55.0% of all active listings having experienced at least one price reduction. This growing inventory is a direct signal that Austin has entered a slower market cycle where listings linger longer and buyer leverage increases.
How competitive is the Austin housing market right now?
The market is shifting toward buyers. The Activity Index—a proprietary measure of buyer activity from Team Price Real Estate—has dropped to 21.0%, down from 24.5% in June 2024. This represents a 14.4% year-over-year decline in buyer engagement. Meanwhile, the Months of Inventory has risen to 6.24, up from 5.22 last year, a 19.5% increase. These two metrics combined show that listings are outpacing contracts and that homes are staying on the market longer. With MOI approaching the 7.0 threshold that defines a full buyer’s market, the leverage has clearly shifted. Sellers are offering more concessions, dropping prices, and facing increased competition, especially in the $400K–$800K price range. The days of bidding wars and waived contingencies are largely behind us for now.
Are home prices still falling in Austin?
Yes, home prices are still correcting from their 2022 peak. The current median sold price is $464,240, which is down 15.59% from the high of $550,000 in May 2022. This represents a decline of $85,760 over the past three years. The average sold price has also dropped to $598,590, down 12.22% from the $681,939 peak. Not only are prices lower than in 2022, but they are also down 13.23% compared to the same point three years ago, showing a long-term trend of devaluation. This price correction is not limited to one part of the market; both high-end and entry-level homes have experienced declines. The bottom 25th percentile is down 3.2% year-over-year, while the top 25th percentile is down 1.9%, and price per square foot has fallen across the board. With high inventory and softening demand, sellers are finding they must price aggressively to attract offers.
Is Austin’s market returning to normal or something else?
This is not a return to normal—it’s a sustained market correction. While some market watchers hoped 2024 marked the bottom, the data from mid-2025 shows that the correction is continuing. Pending contracts are still trending down, inventory is rising, and pricing remains under pressure. The gap between new listings and pending sales (6,569 homes YTD) is the widest it’s been since 2004. The new-to-pending ratio for 2025 stands at 0.66, far below the 25-year average of 0.81, and monthly data for June shows it even lower at 0.59. These indicators reflect a structural imbalance, not a seasonal lull. Using the long-term appreciation rate of 5.112%, it would take 43 months—or until late 2028—for median prices to return to their 2022 peak, assuming today’s price level is the bottom. That projection assumes consistent appreciation and no further demand shocks.
What’s driving the slowdown in Austin real estate?
Multiple overlapping forces are contributing to the slowdown. First, supply has surged—year-to-date new listings are well above average, while pending sales are declining. Second, affordability remains a barrier. Despite falling home prices, mortgage rates remain elevated, reducing what buyers can afford and slowing absorption. Third, buyer psychology has shifted. With 55% of listings showing price reductions and Months of Inventory rising to 6.24, buyers no longer feel rushed and are taking longer to make decisions or waiting for better deals. Fourth, the data reveals saturation in certain submarkets. Cities like Marble Falls and Liberty Hill now have over 11 months of inventory. Even core areas like Austin proper have seen inventory rise 19.8% year-over-year. All of these factors are reinforcing one another to prolong the slowdown and keep the market firmly in buyer-controlled territory.
Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?
If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.
