The Austin housing market continues to show signs of imbalance as supply runs ahead of demand, while prices remain well below their 2022 peak.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for September 29, 2025​

Austin currently has 16,867 active residential listings, which is 13.7% higher than this time last year and still only 1,279 listings below the recent high of 18,146 reached in June 2025. Nearly 59% of these active homes have had at least one price drop, which reflects the difficulty sellers face in attracting buyers in a slower-moving environment. The abundance of listings has pushed the Months of Inventory to 6.0, up from 5.33 a year ago, marking a 12.7% year-over-year increase. Historically, the market averages closer to 4.0 months of supply, so today’s conditions point to a market tilted toward buyers.

Pending activity is not keeping pace with supply. September pending listings sit at 4,057, down 3.2% from last year. When we look at the year-to-date totals, cumulative pending contracts (33,978) are down 3.0% year-over-year, even as new listings are up 5.1%. This growing gap is captured in the new listing-to-pending ratio, which stands at 0.70 year-to-date, below the 25-year average of 0.82. This imbalance confirms that demand has not caught up with supply. For context, September’s monthly new listing-to-pending ratio is just 0.68, making it the most accurate leading indicator of the slowdown buyers and sellers feel in real time.

Sales performance continues to lag historical norms. Austin recorded 2,333 closed sales in September, bringing the year-to-date total to 22,914 — down 4.2% from last year. On a population-adjusted basis, sales density has fallen to 896 sales per 100,000 residents, 22.1% below the long-term average. This underscores that today’s slower pace is not just about more listings, but also about fewer buyers engaging. For agents, this reality translates into fewer transactions per capita, a sharp contrast to the peak of the market.

Prices remain well below their highs, even as they show some stabilization. The median sold price in September was $428,801, which is a 22.0% decline from the May 2022 peak of $550,000. The average price sits at $559,101, down 18.0% from the same peak period. Looking back three years, the median price is 8.8% lower than it was in 2022, highlighting how the correction has erased recent appreciation. Analysts project that, assuming Austin returns to its long-term 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.78% annually, it would take about 67 months — until March 2031 — for median prices to recover to their prior peak.

Not all parts of the market are moving in sync. Higher-end homes (top 25th percentile) have managed to grow 4.0% in value over the past year, while the bottom quartile of the market has seen prices fall by 3.6%. This widening gap reflects buyers’ greater sensitivity to affordability, mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty in the lower price ranges, while wealthier buyers remain more active. Across the metro, nine cities have seen year-over-year price increases, but 20 cities still report declines.

The Activity Index, which measures the ratio of pending sales to active listings, has slipped to 19.4%, down from 22.0% last year. For perspective, this index was often above 30% during stronger seller markets. Today’s index highlights that buyers are slower to act, even as options increase. New construction is absorbing some demand at a higher rate (26.8%) than resale homes (16.5%), but resale inventory remains the dominant driver of pricing pressure.

Absorption rates also confirm the market’s sluggish pace. The current sold-to-active ratio is just 13.2%, far below the historical average of 31.7%. Similarly, the Market Flow Score — which standardizes supply and demand dynamics on a scale of 0 to 10 — is just 3.49 compared to the long-term average of 6.59. These weaker scores reinforce that the Austin market is currently supply-heavy and tilted in favor of buyers.

For buyers, today’s conditions represent one of the most favorable environments in years. Choices are abundant, sellers are more flexible, and nearly six out of ten listings have already reduced their asking price. Investors will note that while sales density is low, new construction continues to release inventory, creating opportunities for strategic acquisitions in neighborhoods where prices are pressured. For sellers, the takeaway is clear: pricing must match today’s buyer-driven reality. Aspirational pricing strategies will not succeed in this climate, and realistic positioning is essential to capture attention and secure offers.

Looking forward, the imbalance between supply and demand suggests that buyers will maintain leverage into 2026. While long-term fundamentals remain strong, and Austin’s growth trajectory has historically driven price recovery over multi-year cycles, the road back to peak values will be measured in years, not months. With inventory high, absorption weak, and activity levels muted, the Austin real estate forecast points toward a drawn-out correction where competitive pricing and sharp negotiation skills will be the keys to success.