September 29, 2025 - Monday Touch Point
The September 29, 2025 Monday Touch Point opened with a reminder that fall is often a turning point for Austin’s housing market. This week’s economic calendar is loaded with data that will directly influence rates, from pending home sales to payroll reports. With bond markets already shifting and the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to speak, volatility is expected.
The Power of the New Listing-to-Pending Ratio
Our most reliable leading market indicator remains the new listing-to-pending ratio, which measures the relationship between incoming listings and properties absorbed by the market. A ratio of 1.0 signals equilibrium, while anything above favors sellers and below favors buyers. This week the ratio started at 0.60, down from 0.91 the week prior. Once all late-reported pendings are updated, we expect this week to close closer to 0.75 — still weaker than last year’s 0.91. This trend highlights the widening gap between new inventory and buyer demand, a theme that has become more evident since early September.
Price Adjustments Tell the Story
Perhaps the most eye-catching statistic was the collapse in price increases: just 96 listings saw price hikes, compared to an average of 190 earlier in the year. Meanwhile, 95% of all pricing changes were decreases, breaking a nine-week stretch where the figure sat at or below record levels. Back-on-market activity also held firm at 21%, slightly above the yearly average of 18%. The message is clear: sellers are adjusting expectations sharply, and buyers are demanding discounts to move forward.
Year-Over-Year Comparisons
The year-over-year data reinforces the September slowdown. New listings are down more than 16% compared to the same week in 2024, and pendings are on track for a fifth straight week of underperformance versus last year. National data shows pending sales up 4% for August, but Austin’s week-by-week analysis reveals that demand has already shifted lower in September. This is why local, daily data is critical — it keeps us four weeks ahead of the headlines.
September Market in Context
With only hours left in the month, September 2025 is closing weaker than anticipated. New listings total just 3,366, nearly 315 fewer than September 2024. Price decreases now represent 92% of all changes, compared to 90% in August. Pending transactions stand at 1,226, far below last year’s 1,840. Withdrawals and expirations are also surging, with more than 17,000 homes pulled from the market year-to-date.
This positions September 2025 as one of the softest months in recent memory, driven largely by consumer psychology. Buyers are increasingly adopting a “deflationary mindset,” believing prices and rates will be better in three to six months.
Inventory and Activity Index
Active inventory sits at 16,867 listings, a 13.7% increase year-over-year and the highest level in 25 years. The activity index is at 19.4%, down from 22% a year ago, reflecting weaker absorption. New construction continues to capture an outsized share of pending sales, accounting for nearly 39% despite representing just one-quarter of total inventory.
Prices and Long-Term Recovery
The median sold price is holding at $428,801, down 22% from the May 2022 peak but up slightly year-over-year by 0.9%. This marks the third consecutive year of median price declines — a first in Austin’s history. Using the 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.78%, a full recovery to peak values is projected for March 2031.
High-end properties continue to outperform, with the top 25th percentile up 4% in price, while the bottom quartile is down 3.6%. Out of 30 tracked cities, two-thirds are reporting year-over-year price declines, with Taylor being the lone flat performer.
Looking Ahead
With mortgage rates fluctuating near 6.625% for conventional 30-year loans, the next few weeks will hinge on economic releases and Fed commentary. While inventory remains elevated and price pressure continues, demand has not disappeared — about 4,000 homes remain under contract at any given time. The challenge is navigating slower absorption and ensuring sellers position properties competitively.
What is the new listing-to-pending ratio and how should I use it in client conversations?
The new listing-to-pending ratio measures the balance between properties entering the market and those going under contract. A 1.0 reading means perfect equilibrium. Below 1.0, inventory builds and buyers gain leverage; above 1.0, absorption outpaces supply and sellers are in control. For example, this week’s reading started at 0.60, showing buyers have the edge. The ratio is recalculated as pendings are updated in MLS, so it usually finishes higher than the Monday reading, but the story is clear: Austin’s absorption has weakened. Use this metric to explain negotiation power, pricing strategy, and timing to both buyers and sellers in simple, concrete terms.
What did this week’s data (week of Sept 29, 2025) actually show?
As of Monday morning, Austin recorded 793 new listings, 378 active-under-contract, and 198 pendings, producing a ratio near 0.60. Only 96 homes increased price—less than half of the year’s average—while 95% of all pricing adjustments were decreases. Back-on-market activity was steady at 21%, above the 18% yearly average. Year-over-year, new listings are down more than 16%, and pendings are on track for their fifth straight week of underperformance compared to last year. This shows buyers are cautious and sellers must be disciplined on pricing if they want to attract serious offers.
How is September 2025 shaping up versus last year, and what does that imply for Q4?
September is closing as a weaker month than September 2024. New listings total about 3,366 compared to 3,691 a year earlier, a shortfall of 315. Price cuts dominate, with 92% of all changes being decreases compared to 90% in August. Pending sales sit at 1,226 versus 1,840 last year, while withdrawals and expirations are at multi-year highs, removing over 17,000 properties from the market year-to-date. Active inventory is near 16,867, a 13.7% increase year-over-year, and the activity index has slipped below 20%. This suggests Q4 will be competitive: listings that are well-prepared and priced correctly will sell, but absorption remains slow, requiring sharper strategy from both sides of the table.
Why do national headlines look upbeat (e.g., pending sales up 4% for August) while Austin feels softer now?
The disconnect comes from timing. National metrics like the Freddie Mac price index and the Pending Home Sales Index are published on a lag, often reporting deals that went under contract months earlier. Austin mirrored the national story in August, with pendings up about 4.4% year-over-year. But by September, local data shows demand has cooled again. That’s why national reports say “sales are up,” while local Austin data already reflects a slowdown. In practice, this means we’re four weeks ahead of the headlines—giving our agents and clients the ability to act on the market as it is today, not as it was months ago.
Given inventory, price drops, and rates, what’s the smartest plan for sellers and buyers right now?
For sellers, the market demands precision. Nearly 60% of listings in the City of Austin have already reduced price, and more than 80% of pendings only went under contract after a price cut. The smartest approach is to price sharply from the start, keep presentation fresh, and consider relisting with new photos if your property is aging in MLS. Fourth quarter often brings a seasonal dip in new listings, so holding or relisting can work in your favor. Buyers should be proactive but patient: nearly two-thirds of the market is cutting price, and incentives are widespread in new construction. Comparing resale concessions to builder incentives is critical. At the same time, activity indexes at the zip code level now show both active and pending counts, giving buyers and agents a micro-level view of where leverage is greatest. Both sides need to stay focused on today’s realities—higher inventory, cautious demand, and mortgage rates hovering around 6.6%—to craft strategies that actually close deals.
